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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence wins the prize. In reality, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or merely the biggest surprise.

But the latest field is profoundly different. The group of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent conference winners fading and recent strugglers ascending together. In an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this chaotic and fun year, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

This is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to spin magic from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical season, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this is not a normal year!

Where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. But he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still